Price forecasting of SGB and IRFC Bonds and comparing there returns

Overview

Project_Bonds

Project Title : Price forecasting of SGB and IRFC Bonds and comparing there returns.

Introduction of the Project

The 2008-09 global financial crises and 2020-21 pandemic have shown us the volatility of the market. Many people have are finding a way to invest money to secure their future. People are trying to find a secure investment with minimum financial risks with higher returns. This is also a fact that with investment their also comes with risks. There is a saying in the world of investment “Do not put all your egg in one basket”. We need to diverse portfolio in the area of investment, so that if one investment does not give you enough yields due to fluctuations in the market rates then other will give you higher yield. Bonds are one such investment people prefer the most. The Bonds we have selected are two government bonds – SGB (Sovereign Gold Bond) and IRFC (Indian Railway Finance Corporation). The objective was to forecast the prices of SGB and IRFC bond and calculate the returns. Compare the returns and recommend the client which one to pick based on the input that is number of years to forecast.

Technologies Used

  • Python – ML model (auto_arima (for grid search to find p,q,d values), ARIMA(for forecasting values))
  • SQLite – Database
  • Flask – Front End for deployment
  • Python Libraries – numpy, pandas, Statsmodels, re, nsepy, matplotlib
  • HTML/CSS

General info

This project is simple Forecasting model. Not taxes were put into use when calculating returns. IRFC Bond is a tax free bond but SGB we need to pay taxes if we try to sell it before the maturity period is over. Inflation rate and global pandemic situation is a rare phenonmenon and it is beyond anyone's control. It has been taken into business restriction.
Data has been collected from National Stock exchange of India The two bonds selected from NSE was -

Requirement file (contains libraries and their versions)

Libraries Used

Project Architecture

alt text

Explaining Project Architecture

Live data extraction

The data collected from NSE website (historical data) and the library which is used to collect live daily data from the website is nsepy. The data is then goes to python, two things happens in python. First, out of all the attributes, we only take "Close Price" and then the daily is then converted into monthly data. We use mean to calculate the the monthly average.

Data storage in sqlite

We chose SQLite because it is very easy to use and one does not need the knowledge of sql to observe the data. the database is created locally and and is being updated when the user usses the application. the user can easliy take the database and see the data in SQL viewr online available.

Data is then used by the model

When data is then called back by the python. the python then perform differencing method to remove the trend and seasonality from the data so that our data can be stable. For successful forecasting, it is necessary to keepp the time series data to be stationary.

p,d,q Hyperparameters

We use auto_arima function to calculate p,d,q value. We use re(regex) to store the summary of auto_arima in string format. then use "re.findall()" funtion to collect the value of p,d,q values. The downpoint of using this auto_arima function is that it runs two times when the programes gets executed. It calculate the hyperparameter values for both SGB and IRFC data.

ARIMA

This part is where the data is taken and then fit & predict.
This is for 12 months. Actual Data vs Predicted Data

Model Evaluation

SGB

The RMSE: 93.27 Rs. & The MAPE: 0.0185

IRFC

The RMSE: 21.62 Rs. & The MAPE: 0.0139
(Pretty Good)

Forecasting (12 Months)

Forecasted Data (12 Months)

Returns

This is the part where both SGB and IRFC foecasted data is being collected and based on that returns are calculated. If the SGB returns is higher than IRFC bonds then it will tell the customer about the amount of return for a specific time period.

User Input

The user will be given 3 options as Input. The user will select a specific time period from a drop down list. The options are -

  1. 4 Months (Quaterly)
  2. 6 Months (Half yearly)
  3. 12 Months (Anually)
    This options are time pperiod to forecast. If the user press 6 then the output page will show "6" forecasted values with a range Upper Price, Forecasted Price, Lower Price for both the bonds side by side. Below there will be a text where the returns will be diplayed if the user decides to sell the bonds then.
    12 Months Forecasted Prices - forecasted_prices

Python_code

correlation matrix fig=plt.gcf() fig.set_size_inches(10,8) plt.show() heatmap(gold) heatmap(bond) ############################### Live data to Feature engineering ################################################3 ##Taking close price as our univariate variable ##For gold gold=pd.DataFrame(gold["Close"]) gold["date"]=gold.index gold["date"]=gold['date'].astype(str) gold[["year", "month", "day"]] = gold["date"].str.split(pat="-", expand=True) gold['Dates'] = gold['month'].str.cat(gold['year'], sep ="-") gold.Dates=pd.to_datetime(gold.Dates) gold.set_index('Dates',inplace=True) col_sgb=pd.DataFrame(gold.groupby(gold.index).Close.mean()) ##For bond bond=pd.DataFrame(bond["Close"]) bond["date"]=bond.index bond["date"]=bond['date'].astype(str) bond[["year", "month", "day"]] = bond["date"].str.split(pat="-", expand=True) bond['Dates'] = bond['month'].str.cat(bond['year'], sep ="-") bond.Dates=pd.to_datetime(bond.Dates) bond.set_index('Dates',inplace=True) col_bond=pd.DataFrame(bond.groupby(bond.index).Close.mean()) col_sgb.columns = ["Avg_price"] col_bond.columns = ["Avg_price"] col_bond.isnull().sum() col_sgb.isnull().sum() ############################ SQL connection with monthly data ################################################ ############################### SQL database is created ################################################3 # Connect to the database from sqlalchemy import create_engine engine_sgb = create_engine('sqlite:///gold_database.db', echo=False) col_sgb.to_sql('SGB', con=engine_sgb,if_exists='replace') df_sgb = pd.read_sql('select * from SGB',engine_sgb ) df_sgb.Dates=pd.to_datetime(df_sgb.Dates) df_sgb.set_index('Dates',inplace=True) engine_irfcb = create_engine('sqlite:///irfcb_database.db', echo=False) col_bond.to_sql('IRFCB', con=engine_irfcb,if_exists='replace') df_bond = pd.read_sql('select * from IRFCB',engine_irfcb) df_bond.Dates=pd.to_datetime(df_bond.Dates) df_bond.set_index('Dates',inplace=True) ############################### SQL data to python ################################################3 # Plotting def plotting_bond(y): fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(20, 6)) ax.plot(y,marker='.', linestyle='-', linewidth=0.5, label='Monthly Average') ax.plot(y.resample('Y').mean(),marker='o', markersize=8, linestyle='-', label='Yearly Mean Resample') ax.set_ylabel('Avg_price') ax.legend(); plotting_bond(df_sgb) plotting_bond(df_bond) #univariate analysis of Average Price df_sgb.hist(bins = 50) df_bond.hist(bins = 50) # check Stationary and adf test def test_stationarity(timeseries): #Determing rolling statistics rolmean = timeseries.rolling(12).mean() rolstd = timeseries.rolling(12).std() #Plot rolling statistics: fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(16, 4)) ax.plot(timeseries, label = "Original Price") ax.plot(rolmean, label='rolling mean'); ax.plot(rolstd, label='rolling std'); plt.legend(loc='best') plt.title('Rolling Mean and Standard Deviation - Removed Trend and Seasonality') plt.show(block=False) print("Results of dickey fuller test") adft = adfuller(timeseries,autolag='AIC') print('Test statistic = {:.3f}'.format(adft[0])) print('P-value = {:.3f}'.format(adft[1])) print('Critical values :') for k, v in adft[4].items(): print('\t{}: {} - The data is {} stationary with {}% confidence'.format(k, v, 'not' if v y: a = print("The retrun of SGB is {a} and the return of IRFC Bond is {b} after {c} months".format(a=x,b=y,c=t)) else: a = print("The return of IRFC Bond is{a} and the return of SGB Bond is {b} after {c} months".format(a=x,b=y,c=t)) return a output_(gain_sgb,gain_bond, n) ">
import pandas as pd
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import seaborn as sns
from pylab import rcParams
from statsmodels.tsa.stattools import adfuller
from statsmodels.tsa.seasonal import seasonal_decompose
from statsmodels.tsa.arima.model import ARIMA
from pmdarima.arima import auto_arima
from sklearn.metrics import mean_squared_error
import math
import re
from datetime import date
import nsepy 
import warnings
warnings.filterwarnings("ignore")
####################################          Live data extraction              ###################################################
##Extracting data from nsepy package
da=date.today()
gold= pd.DataFrame(nsepy.get_history(symbol="SGBAUG24",series="GB", start=date(2016,9,1), end=da))
bond= pd.DataFrame(nsepy.get_history(symbol="IRFC",series="N2", start=date(2012,1,1), end=da))

#############################                 Live data  extraction end                  ###############################################

# Heatmap - to check collinearity
def heatmap(x):
    plt.figure(figsize=(16,16))
    sns.heatmap(x.corr(),annot=True,cmap='Blues',linewidths=0.2) #data.corr()-->correlation matrix
    fig=plt.gcf()
    fig.set_size_inches(10,8)
    plt.show()
heatmap(gold)
heatmap(bond)
###############################                Live data to Feature engineering            ################################################3             

##Taking close price as our univariate variable
##For gold
gold=pd.DataFrame(gold["Close"])
gold["date"]=gold.index
gold["date"]=gold['date'].astype(str)
gold[["year", "month", "day"]] = gold["date"].str.split(pat="-", expand=True)
gold['Dates'] = gold['month'].str.cat(gold['year'], sep ="-")
gold.Dates=pd.to_datetime(gold.Dates)
gold.set_index('Dates',inplace=True)
col_sgb=pd.DataFrame(gold.groupby(gold.index).Close.mean())

##For bond
bond=pd.DataFrame(bond["Close"])
bond["date"]=bond.index
bond["date"]=bond['date'].astype(str)
bond[["year", "month", "day"]] = bond["date"].str.split(pat="-", expand=True)
bond['Dates'] = bond['month'].str.cat(bond['year'], sep ="-")
bond.Dates=pd.to_datetime(bond.Dates)
bond.set_index('Dates',inplace=True)
col_bond=pd.DataFrame(bond.groupby(bond.index).Close.mean())

col_sgb.columns = ["Avg_price"]
col_bond.columns = ["Avg_price"]

col_bond.isnull().sum()
col_sgb.isnull().sum()

############################                  SQL connection with monthly data           ################################################ 
###############################                SQL database is created                  ################################################3             

# Connect to the database
from sqlalchemy import create_engine
engine_sgb = create_engine('sqlite:///gold_database.db', echo=False)
col_sgb.to_sql('SGB', con=engine_sgb,if_exists='replace')
df_sgb = pd.read_sql('select * from SGB',engine_sgb )

df_sgb.Dates=pd.to_datetime(df_sgb.Dates)
df_sgb.set_index('Dates',inplace=True)


engine_irfcb = create_engine('sqlite:///irfcb_database.db', echo=False)
col_bond.to_sql('IRFCB', con=engine_irfcb,if_exists='replace')
df_bond = pd.read_sql('select * from IRFCB',engine_irfcb)

df_bond.Dates=pd.to_datetime(df_bond.Dates)
df_bond.set_index('Dates',inplace=True)
###############################                SQL data to python                 ################################################3             



# Plotting
def plotting_bond(y):
    fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(20, 6))
    ax.plot(y,marker='.', linestyle='-', linewidth=0.5, label='Monthly Average')
    ax.plot(y.resample('Y').mean(),marker='o', markersize=8, linestyle='-', label='Yearly Mean Resample')
    ax.set_ylabel('Avg_price')
    ax.legend();
plotting_bond(df_sgb)
plotting_bond(df_bond)

#univariate analysis of Average Price
df_sgb.hist(bins = 50)
df_bond.hist(bins = 50)

# check Stationary and adf test
def test_stationarity(timeseries):
    #Determing rolling statistics
    rolmean = timeseries.rolling(12).mean()
    rolstd = timeseries.rolling(12).std()
    #Plot rolling statistics:
    fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(16, 4))
    ax.plot(timeseries, label = "Original Price")
    ax.plot(rolmean, label='rolling mean');
    ax.plot(rolstd, label='rolling std');
    plt.legend(loc='best')
    plt.title('Rolling Mean and Standard Deviation - Removed Trend and Seasonality')
    plt.show(block=False)
    
    print("Results of dickey fuller test")
    adft = adfuller(timeseries,autolag='AIC')
    print('Test statistic = {:.3f}'.format(adft[0]))
    print('P-value = {:.3f}'.format(adft[1]))
    print('Critical values :')
    for k, v in adft[4].items():
        print('\t{}: {} - The data is {} stationary with {}% confidence'.format(k, v, 'not' if v
    
      y:
        a = print("The retrun of SGB is {a} and the return of IRFC Bond is {b} after {c} months".format(a=x,b=y,c=t))
    else:
        a = print("The return of IRFC Bond is{a} and the return of SGB Bond is {b} after {c} months".format(a=x,b=y,c=t))
    return a
output_(gain_sgb,gain_bond, n)

    

Home Page (Used HTML and CSS)

home

Predict Page

predict

Output Page

output

Project Completed --

You might also like...
A python library for easy manipulation and forecasting of time series.
A python library for easy manipulation and forecasting of time series.

Time Series Made Easy in Python darts is a python library for easy manipulation and forecasting of time series. It contains a variety of models, from

Greykite: A flexible, intuitive and fast forecasting library
Greykite: A flexible, intuitive and fast forecasting library

The Greykite library provides flexible, intuitive and fast forecasts through its flagship algorithm, Silverkite.

Time series forecasting with PyTorch

Our article on Towards Data Science introduces the package and provides background information. Pytorch Forecasting aims to ease state-of-the-art time

ETNA is an easy-to-use time series forecasting framework.

ETNA is an easy-to-use time series forecasting framework. It includes built in toolkits for time series preprocessing, feature generation, a variety of predictive models with unified interface - from classic machine learning to SOTA neural networks, models combination methods and smart backtesting. ETNA is designed to make working with time series simple, productive, and fun.

Nixtla is an open-source time series forecasting library.
Nixtla is an open-source time series forecasting library.

Nixtla Nixtla is an open-source time series forecasting library. We are helping data scientists and developers to have access to open source state-of-

ETNA – time series forecasting framework

ETNA Time Series Library Predict your time series the easiest way Homepage | Documentation | Tutorials | Contribution Guide | Release Notes ETNA is an

Forecasting prices using Facebook/Meta's Prophet model

CryptoForecasting using Machine and Deep learning (Part 1) CryptoForecasting using Machine Learning The main aspect of predicting the stock-related da

Continuously evaluated, functional, incremental, time-series forecasting
Continuously evaluated, functional, incremental, time-series forecasting

timemachines Autonomous, univariate, k-step ahead time-series forecasting functions assigned Elo ratings You can: Use some of the functionality of a s

High performance, easy-to-use, and scalable machine learning (ML) package, including linear model (LR), factorization machines (FM), and field-aware factorization machines (FFM) for Python and CLI interface.
High performance, easy-to-use, and scalable machine learning (ML) package, including linear model (LR), factorization machines (FM), and field-aware factorization machines (FFM) for Python and CLI interface.

What is xLearn? xLearn is a high performance, easy-to-use, and scalable machine learning package that contains linear model (LR), factorization machin

Owner
Tishya S
Data Science aspirant
Tishya S
A Python Module That Uses ANN To Predict A Stocks Price And Also Provides Accurate Technical Analysis With Many High Potential Implementations!

Stox A Module to predict the "close price" for the next day and give "technical analysis". It uses a Neural Network and the LSTM algorithm to predict

Stox 31 Dec 16, 2022
This machine-learning algorithm takes in data from the last 60 days and tries to predict tomorrow's price of any crypto you ask it.

Crypto-Currency-Predictor This machine-learning algorithm takes in data from the last 60 days and tries to predict tomorrow's price of any crypto you

Hazim Arafa 6 Dec 4, 2022
Cryptocurrency price prediction and exceptions in python

Cryptocurrency price prediction and exceptions in python This is a coursework on foundations of computing module Through this coursework i worked on m

Panagiotis Sotirellos 1 Nov 7, 2021
Warren - Stock Price Predictor

Web app to predict closing stock prices in real time using Facebook's Prophet time series algorithm with a multi-variate, single-step time series forecasting strategy.

Kumar Nityan Suman 153 Jan 3, 2023
This repository contains the code to predict house price using Linear Regression Method

House-Price-Prediction-Using-Linear-Regression The dataset I used for this personal project is from Kaggle uploaded by aariyan panchal. Link of Datase

null 0 Jan 28, 2022
Stock Price Prediction Bank Jago Using Facebook Prophet Machine Learning & Python

Stock Price Prediction Bank Jago Using Facebook Prophet Machine Learning & Python Overview Bank Jago has attracted investors' attention since the end

Najibulloh Asror 3 Feb 10, 2022
A machine learning project that predicts the price of used cars in the UK

Car Price Prediction Image Credit: AA Cars Project Overview Scraped 3000 used cars data from AA Cars website using Python and BeautifulSoup. Cleaned t

Victor Umunna 7 Oct 13, 2022
A linear regression model for house price prediction

Linear_Regression_Model A linear regression model for house price prediction. This code is using these packages, so please make sure your have install

ShawnWang 1 Nov 29, 2021
Ml based project which uses regression technique to predict the price.

Price-Predictor Ml based project which uses regression technique to predict the price. I have used various regression models and finds the model with

Garvit Verma 1 Jul 9, 2022
Avocado hass time series vs predict price

AVOCADO HASS TIME SERIES VÀ PREDICT PRICE Trước khi vào Heroku muốn giao diện đẹp mọi người chuyển giúp mình theo hình bên dưới https://avocado-hass.h

hieulmsc 3 Dec 18, 2021